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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fai ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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