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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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