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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 millio ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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