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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 13
12TH CLEAN COAL FORUM INDONESIA 2013
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 12th Clean Coal Forum Indonesia 2013 will be held on Dec 5-6,2013 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It will generat ...
Monday, 01 July 13
INDIA AND CHINA STILL DOMINATING THE INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORT MARKET
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi types coal exporter shipped 35.83* million tons of coal in May 2013, 1.40 per cent l ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
YEAR 2014 INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2013 LEVEL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery have gained 0.08 percent on a day lost on week ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
CAPESIZE RATES SEEN INCREASING ON HIGH DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to rise and saw a big gain on Friday. BDI increased 14 per cent week ended 28 June 2013, closed at 1171 points driv ...
Friday, 28 June 13
U.S. PRODUCED 1.52 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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