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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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