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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
Friday, 14 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.20 MILLION SHORT TONS W/E 8 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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