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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 July 13
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS GOING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH - INTERMODAL
The Capesize sector has been one that has gone through a wild rollercoaster of emotions this past decade, ranging from the exuberance witnessed duri ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
CHALLENGER SIGNS FORMAL EXCLUSIVE MINING AND MARKETING AGREEMENT FOR ABBR PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its subsidiary PT Bestindo Energy has signed the formal exclusive Mining and Marketing agree ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
ASX LISTED QBL TO ACQUIRE INTERESTS IN MOZAMBIQUE COAL EXPLORATION LICENSES
- QBL to acquire interests in two Mozambique exploration licences prospective for coal
- Licenses located in the highly prospective Zambezi basin, ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA, CHARTERERS RATING AROUND US$ 10,000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market firmed slightly up as mid-July cargos entered the market, but charterers seems not in hurry to cover them and looking for ch ...
Wednesday, 03 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DIP 24.79 PER CENT WOW
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports fell 24.79% to 2.33 million tons WoW.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,332,513 tons of coal for the ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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