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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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