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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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