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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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