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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 July 13
U.S.COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.60 MMST WEEK ENDED JULY 13
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 19 July 13
TNPL IS LOOKING FOR 300 K MT OF 6000 GAD COAL FOR FIVE MONTH
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 5 shipments about 60,0 ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
3RD ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS, INDONESIA
Commercial applications for offshore transshipment facilities
Floating Terminal solutions are increasingly being deployed by miners, independent ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
THE CAPE MARKET APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Pacific, market maintained similar levels during the week. There is several Indo coal orders in the market, ships passing Singapore fi ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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