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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
Monday, 22 July 13
INDO COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 13 DELIVERY GAINED ON WEEK BUT LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery slightly up on week but fell on day and month on Fri ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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