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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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