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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 10 August 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY TO BE CRUCIAL AGAIN IN PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We appear to have forgotten demolition activity this year, with the Baltic Dry Index gaining traction in the latter part of the second half and emer ...
Friday, 09 August 13
US PRODUCED 4.00 PERCENT LESS COAL ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.00 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
HANDY : NO POSITIVE SENTIMENT FOR THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
No positive sentiment for the Far East market. There are a number of ships coming open in SE Asia this week and owners rating mid/high USD 8k ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
MALAYSIA HOSTS THIRD ANNUAL ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release : The third Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group (ASBCUG) conference convenes Sept. 30-Oct. 3 at the Eastern & Orie ...
Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects ha ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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