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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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