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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
Saturday, 10 August 13
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR US COAL INDUSTRY CHANGES TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "U ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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