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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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