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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 August 13
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was up this week with the BDI gaining more than 10 pct due to strong Cape Sector.
The BDI was closed at 1,102 p ...
Friday, 16 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.10 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 15 August 13
CAPESIZE : TRENDS SOMETIMES SHIFT WITH NO PRIOR WARNING - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The influence of the summer holidays across Europe was felt in the Atlantic basin this week. Very little activity and a growing list of avail ...
Wednesday, 14 August 13
ANOTHER WEEK IN THE RED FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
Another week in the red for Dry Bulk carriers with the market losing further steam as fewer an ...
Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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