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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
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