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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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