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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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