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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A HIGH ROLL, MAINLY THANKS TO CAPESIZE APPETITE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize owners have been rejoycing on the back of renewed optimism for the further rise in the dry bulk market's freight rates, especially when on ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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