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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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