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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 September 13
RBCT SHIPPED 16.18 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal South African as well as in the world has shipped 6,162, ...
Wednesday, 04 September 13
SUPRAS AND HANDIES : INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES ARE SUPPORTING HEALTHY ACTIVITY LEVELS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has pooled back a bit this week after firming for two weeks in a row. The BDI is s holding above 1,100 points and despite the sm ...
Tuesday, 03 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 22.93 PER CENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 22.93 per cent week on week to 3.39 million mt for ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
COAL SWAP SHOWS MIXED TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery 1.25 percent up month on month. The swap was moved posit ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SPOT FREIGHT STAYS FIRM THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm with even though the BDI and Cape index dropped by about 3 pct week on week.
The BDI was do ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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