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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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