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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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