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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 September 13
BDI STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES JUMP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its upward trend and maintaining the moment with BDI and Cape index up by 16 pct week on week. The Capesi ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ADVANCE
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 2.09 percept month on month on Friday 20 September 2 ...
Friday, 20 September 13
SHIP OWNERS INVEST MORE THAN $9.2 BILLION ON NEW BUILDING VESSELS DURING AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that August is traditionally a slow month in terms of ships investment activity, ship owners have grasped this year the opportunity ...
Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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