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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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