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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED TO ADVANCE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market continued to advance at a very fast pace, with the BDI closing off the week north ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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