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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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