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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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