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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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