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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the singl ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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