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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 October 13
PANAMAX: RATES SLIP ACROSS BOTH HEMISPHERES
Handy
We were back from holidays but still not much enquiries in the market. Overall future direction is uncertain. Currently, ships passing Singap ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
SHIP PRICES ARE INCREASING ON THE BACK OF IMPROVED MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating from its recent highs, ending yesterday at 1,786 points, down 61 points on the day, with Capesizes leadin ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STABILITY - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has shown signs of stability this past week, with the sole exception of Capes, rates f ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding f ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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