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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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