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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
Friday, 25 October 13
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED TOTALLED 803.1 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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