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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON "PAUSE" MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on "pause" mode over the past week, after China's return from the week long holidays. The industry's benchm ...
Friday, 18 October 13
US PRODUCED 6.7% MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE AGAIN MOVING UPWARDS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Activities were obviously slowed down in the Pacific basin. There were only few coal movements which fixed around USD 15-16k for ships in Sin ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
SGX TO LAUNCH "SGX THERMAL COAL FUTURES" NEXT MONDAY
COALspot.com: SGX is to launch two thermal coal futures contracts, SGX API 8 CFR China Coal Index Futures and SGX IHS McCloskey Indonesian Sub-bit F ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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