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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 October 13
HANDY: ACTIVE; PANAMAX: QUIET; CAPESIZE: NO LIGHT
Handy
The handy market had an active week however not directly translated into the rates we´ve seen in the Pacific. We see more coal and baux ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER HAS EXPORTED 7.02 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 9 MONTHS
COALspot.com : PT. Bukit Asam, Indonesian state owned coal miner has sold 13.24 million tons of coal for the period January - September 2013. Accord ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week, as de-creased activity in both basins for both C ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
CAPESIZE: DOWNWARD; SUPRAS AND HANDIES: STABLE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has resumed its downward movement, noting another dip for a third week in a row. The larger size segments were responsible for p ...
Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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