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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 November 13
H2' 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE ( SWAPS) SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 0.24 percept week on week on Friday 1 ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX FELL 13.61 PCT W-W
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to soften on the cape and panamax sectors , however the supramax and handy size remained fairly firm.
...
Saturday, 02 November 13
DRY BULK SHIPPERS AREN'T CELEBRATING, BUT THEIR SILENCE IS GOLDEN - MARKET REALIST
In October, performance for major dry bulk shipping companies was mixed. Companies like DryShips Inc. (DRYS) had pulled back more than Diana Shippin ...
Friday, 01 November 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 0.9 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 01 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET IN FIRST POSITIVE SIGN IN DAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Owners of dry bulk carriers are well aware of the rollercoaster ride that has been the market for their vessels over the past few years. This trend ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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