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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 November 13
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S RISING WATER CHALLENGE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Water poses a variety of business risks for the energy industry, and could play an influential role in shaping the future energy supply mix, accordi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA ROUNDS ARE SEEING BIDS AT AROUND $16K
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS LOST GROUND WHILE SUPRAS AND HANDIES HELD ON TO THEIR GAINS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )
A mirror image of the week prior for the Dry Bulk market, as once more the bigger size segments los ...
Tuesday, 05 November 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SEES DROP IN COAL EXPORTS W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 4, Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.77 m ...
Monday, 04 November 13
API 8 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.65% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2014 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.24 percept W-W on Friday 1 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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