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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 31 July 13
COAL GASIFICATION
IBC’s Coal Gasification conference explores the opportunities for coal gasification investment and development in Asia.
With depleting dome ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
SUPRAMAX : THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS MOVING ON A POSITIVE PATH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Cape - Despite holding their ground fairly well early on in the week, Capes in the Atlantic basin gave in to the mounting pressure fro ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI
Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
WIJAYA TRI UTAMA PURCHASES MICROCOAL TECHNOLOGIES' CLEAN COAL UPGRADING FACILITY
- First MCI commercial scale application of proprietary microwave technology to upgrade coal thermal output and reduce pollutants
- MicroCoal to re ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids for 520,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal with calorific value 5,700 kcal/kg on NAR basis f ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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