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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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