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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
Monday, 22 July 13
INDO COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 13 DELIVERY GAINED ON WEEK BUT LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery slightly up on week but fell on day and month on Fri ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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