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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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