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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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