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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 10 August 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY TO BE CRUCIAL AGAIN IN PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We appear to have forgotten demolition activity this year, with the Baltic Dry Index gaining traction in the latter part of the second half and emer ...
Friday, 09 August 13
US PRODUCED 4.00 PERCENT LESS COAL ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.00 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
HANDY : NO POSITIVE SENTIMENT FOR THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
No positive sentiment for the Far East market. There are a number of ships coming open in SE Asia this week and owners rating mid/high USD 8k ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
MALAYSIA HOSTS THIRD ANNUAL ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release : The third Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group (ASBCUG) conference convenes Sept. 30-Oct. 3 at the Eastern & Orie ...
Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects ha ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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