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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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