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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the singl ...
Friday, 18 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON "PAUSE" MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on "pause" mode over the past week, after China's return from the week long holidays. The industry's benchm ...
Friday, 18 October 13
US PRODUCED 6.7% MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE AGAIN MOVING UPWARDS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Activities were obviously slowed down in the Pacific basin. There were only few coal movements which fixed around USD 15-16k for ships in Sin ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
SGX TO LAUNCH "SGX THERMAL COAL FUTURES" NEXT MONDAY
COALspot.com: SGX is to launch two thermal coal futures contracts, SGX API 8 CFR China Coal Index Futures and SGX IHS McCloskey Indonesian Sub-bit F ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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