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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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