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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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